Recent Escalations

Setting the Scene

Recent escalations in the Israel Palestine conflict refer to new or sharply intensified rounds of violence, political crisis, or large scale military operations that stand out even against a long backdrop of tension. In this chapter, the focus is on developments from roughly the mid 2010s onward, with particular attention to the period from 2021 to the present, when confrontations became more frequent, more lethal, and more interconnected across Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Israel inside its pre 1967 borders, and the wider region.

These escalations have not appeared out of nowhere. They build on the unresolved core issues you encounter in other chapters, such as occupation, blockade, refugees, and competing national projects. What is distinctive now is the combination of changing local power balances, increasingly fragmented leadership, the role of armed non state actors, and the way information and mobilization flow almost instantly through social media across borders.

The May 2021 Escalation

One of the most important recent turning points occurred in May 2021. Tensions rose around several interconnected flashpoints in Jerusalem, including confrontations at the al Aqsa Mosque compound and disputes over Palestinian homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. What began with clashes between Palestinian protesters and Israeli police in Jerusalem quickly expanded.

Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza fired rockets toward Jerusalem and later toward other Israeli cities. Israel launched large scale airstrikes in Gaza. Although the fighting lasted only about eleven days, the scale of destruction in Gaza was extensive. Residential buildings and infrastructure were heavily damaged, and hundreds of Palestinians were killed, including civilians. In Israel, rockets killed several civilians and sent millions repeatedly to shelters, while the Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted many projectiles.

A distinctive feature of this escalation was the spread of violence inside Israel itself, in cities where Jewish and Palestinian citizens of Israel live side by side. There were street clashes, attacks on homes, synagogues, and businesses, and a breakdown of trust in mixed cities such as Lod and Acre. This internal violence raised questions about the stability of relations between Jewish and Palestinian citizens inside Israel proper, beyond the traditional focus on the territories occupied in 1967.

Internationally, the May 2021 fighting triggered large protests across many countries and sharp diplomatic exchanges but only limited concrete diplomatic initiatives. A ceasefire brokered by Egypt ended active hostilities, yet many underlying issues remained intact, setting the stage for further escalations.

The 2022–2023 Cycle of West Bank Violence

After May 2021, much of the attention shifted to the West Bank. From 2022 onward, violence there intensified significantly. Israel conducted frequent military raids, particularly in cities such as Jenin and Nablus, often describing them as operations to arrest militants or dismantle armed groups planning attacks. These operations led to sustained armed clashes and rising Palestinian casualties, including militants and civilians.

At the same time, new or reconfigured Palestinian armed groups emerged in the West Bank, some less tightly controlled by established factions such as Fatah or Hamas. Young fighters in urban refugee camps formed local brigades that operated with a degree of autonomy. This shift created a more fragmented and unpredictable security environment. For Israel, this was described as a surge of “terrorist infrastructure,” while many Palestinians saw it as a resurgence of armed resistance.

Israeli settlers and Palestinian residents in parts of the West Bank also engaged in more frequent confrontations. There were documented cases of settler attacks on Palestinian homes, farmland, and vehicles, sometimes accompanied by large mobs and, according to human rights organizations, with insufficient or delayed intervention by Israeli security forces. Palestinians carried out shootings and other attacks against settlers and soldiers. This tit for tat pattern blurred the line between localized violence and broader political escalation.

The result was a steady increase in deaths and injuries, a sense of insecurity for both communities, and a deepening perception, especially among Palestinians, that the occupation was becoming harsher and more permanent. This period laid important groundwork for how the region reacted when an even larger shock came in 2023.

The October 7, 2023 Attack

On October 7, 2023, Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza carried out a surprise attack on Israel of unprecedented scale and intensity. Militants broke through or bypassed the barriers and fences that surround the Gaza Strip using explosives, vehicles, and other methods, and infiltrated dozens of communities and military posts in southern Israel.

They killed a large number of people, including civilians at homes and at a music festival, as well as soldiers. They also took hundreds of hostages, including Israelis and foreign nationals, back into Gaza. The events were widely described in Israel and by many other states as a massacre. The shock in Israeli society was profound, not only because of the casualties, but also because of the apparent failure of intelligence and defense systems that many had believed were strong enough to prevent such an incursion.

Hamas described the attack as a response to the occupation, the blockade of Gaza, and repeated confrontations at holy sites, and as part of a broader struggle. Many governments condemned the killing of civilians and hostage taking as war crimes or acts of terrorism. For Palestinians who oppose Hamas, reactions were complex, often combining anger at Israeli policies with fear of the scale of Israeli retaliation that would follow.

October 7 is a major pivot point in current developments. It transformed the conflict into a much wider war, altered regional calculations, and reshaped public opinion in many countries.

The War in Gaza After October 7

Israel responded to the October 7 attack with a massive military campaign in Gaza, involving intensive airstrikes, artillery fire, and ground operations. The stated goals were to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities, remove it from power in Gaza, and secure the release of hostages. The scale and duration of the campaign quickly surpassed previous rounds of fighting between Israel and Gaza based armed groups.

Civilian areas were heavily affected. Large parts of neighborhoods were reduced to rubble. Critical infrastructure such as residential towers, schools, hospitals, water networks, and roads was damaged or destroyed. Israeli officials argued that Hamas operated within and beneath civilian areas, including through extensive tunnel networks, and that Hamas bore responsibility for the risks to civilians. Many international organizations and human rights groups, however, accused Israel of using disproportionate force and of conducting operations that failed to protect civilians adequately as required by international humanitarian law.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorated sharply. Hundreds of thousands, and later more than a million, people were displaced within the Strip, often multiple times, as evacuation orders moved from one area to another. Access to food, fuel, electricity, medical supplies, and clean water became severely restricted. The health system, already fragile, largely collapsed under the weight of casualties and damage to hospitals and clinics.

A temporary pause in fighting, combined with a hostage and prisoner exchange, was negotiated with the help of regional mediators. During this pause, some hostages were released by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and additional humanitarian aid entered Gaza. However, the pause did not evolve into a lasting ceasefire, and fighting resumed. Each subsequent phase of the war added new layers to the humanitarian, political, and legal debates around the conduct of both sides.

Escalation in the West Bank During the Gaza War

The war in Gaza triggered further escalation in the West Bank. Israel increased raids in Palestinian cities and refugee camps, arguing that it needed to prevent a second front. Arrests of Palestinians, including political activists and people accused of supporting Hamas, rose sharply. Curfews, roadblocks, and restrictions on movement intensified, disrupting daily life and the economy.

At the same time, settler violence against Palestinians in rural areas grew more frequent and severe according to reports by human rights groups, UN agencies, and some Israeli organizations. These reports included shootings, arson attacks on homes and cars, destruction of crops, and efforts to push Palestinians off their land. In some cases, entire small communities were displaced from their villages.

Palestinian attacks on Israelis also continued, including shootings at checkpoints or along roads. This cycle deepened fear and mistrust. While the Gaza war was at the center of global attention, the cumulative effect in the West Bank was the tightening of an already restrictive environment and the further erosion of prospects for a negotiated political solution in the near term.

Regional Spillover and Risk of Wider War

Recent escalations have not been confined to the narrow territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. The 2023 war and its aftermath have been intertwined with a broader regional contest.

Along the border between Israel and Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel engaged in frequent exchanges of fire. Hezbollah launched rockets, anti tank missiles, and drones, often claiming to target military positions in support of Gaza. Israel responded with airstrikes and artillery. Civilians on both sides of the border were killed or displaced, and many communities were evacuated. While both sides appeared cautious about launching a full scale war, the risk of uncontrolled escalation remained high.

In other arenas, armed groups aligned with Iran in Syria and Iraq targeted American bases and sometimes Israeli linked locations. The Red Sea saw attacks on commercial shipping by the Yemeni group Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, who said they were acting in solidarity with Palestinians and against Israeli aligned interests. These attacks affected global trade and led to international military responses, including strikes by Western powers on Houthi targets.

These developments showed that recent escalations in the Israel Palestine conflict cannot be understood only as a local struggle. They are increasingly bound up with regional power politics, rival alliances, and broader confrontations involving Iran, Arab states, and Western powers.

Diplomatic Responses and International Debates

The intensity of recent escalations has triggered not only military and humanitarian actions, but also intense diplomatic and legal debates. At the United Nations, different bodies have considered resolutions calling for ceasefires, humanitarian pauses, and accountability. Some resolutions passed, often with nonbinding language or after revisions. Others were vetoed, reflecting deep divisions between major powers.

Some states strongly emphasized Israel’s right to self defense after October 7 and framed their positions around counterterrorism. Others focused more on the scale of suffering in Gaza and called for immediate and lasting ceasefires, arguing that military responses had far exceeded necessary or lawful limits. Many governments tried to balance these concerns by calling both for the release of hostages and for protection of civilians and greater humanitarian access.

Legal discussions intensified in international courts and tribunals. Allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity were raised concerning the actions of Hamas during the October 7 attacks and hostage taking, and concerning Israel’s conduct during the Gaza war. Some states and organizations supported or initiated legal proceedings, while others criticized them as politically motivated. These debates do not resolve quickly, but they shape international perceptions and may influence future diplomatic options.

Shifts in Global Public Opinion

Recent escalations have also transformed how the conflict is seen by ordinary people around the world. Mass protests took place in many cities, sometimes in support of Palestinians, sometimes in solidarity with Israelis, and sometimes in combined calls for peace and protection of civilians on both sides. The size and frequency of these demonstrations underlined how strongly people identify with the conflict, even when they live far away.

Public opinion has been influenced heavily by how violence is framed and by which images circulate. For some, the October 7 attack reinforced a narrative of Israelis as victims of brutality and of Palestinians as attackers; for others, the long history of occupation and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza reinforced a narrative of Palestinians as victims of oppression and of Israel as a powerful aggressor. Polls in different countries showed generational divides, with younger people often more critical of Israeli policy and more vocal in support of Palestinian rights, although patterns vary widely.

These shifts have affected domestic politics in various states, pressuring governments to adjust their diplomatic positions or rhetoric. They have also affected Jewish and Muslim communities outside the region, which have reported spikes in antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents during and after escalations.

Polarization on Social Media

Social media has played a central role in recent escalations. Platforms like X, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, and others have become key spaces where narratives are formed and contested in real time. Videos of attacks, bombings, and civilian suffering spread quickly, sometimes without verification, and can evoke strong emotional responses.

One notable feature is the speed at which disinformation and misattributed images circulate. Old footage from other conflicts or disasters has been reposted as if it were from current events. Fabricated claims, misleading captions, and selective editing can bolster particular narratives and deepen polarization. Fact checking organizations have tried to respond, but corrections often travel more slowly than original misinformation.

At the same time, social media has allowed individuals in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, and neighboring countries to share direct experiences with a global audience, bypassing some traditional media filters. Personal testimony from civilians under fire, families of hostages, medical staff, and journalists has influenced debates and helped humanize the conflict for many viewers. However, online spaces can quickly become hostile, with harassment, dehumanizing language, and pressure to choose sides without nuance.

These dynamics make it harder to hold complex or balanced views. They also illustrate why understanding media representation and digital communication is crucial for interpreting recent escalations.

Political Crises and Leadership Challenges

The intensity of current developments has exposed major challenges for political leadership on all sides. In Israel, the October 7 attack triggered a crisis of confidence in the government and security establishment. Critics accused leaders of negligence, intelligence failure, and misplaced priorities. Massive protests that had begun earlier over judicial reforms were reshaped by the war context, as debates about accountability and the country’s long term direction resurfaced.

Among Palestinians, leadership fragmentation deepened. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank faced growing criticism for its limited influence on events, its security coordination with Israel, and its lack of democratic renewal. Hamas gained attention as a central actor through its actions in October 2023 and its confrontation with Israel, yet also carried responsibility in the eyes of many for exposing Gaza’s civilian population to devastating retaliation. Other factions and local groups sought to assert themselves amid this turmoil.

These leadership crises make it difficult to move from short term escalation management to long term political solutions. They also shape internal debates among Israelis and Palestinians about which strategies have failed, which might still work, and who should represent each side in any future negotiations.

Escalation Fatigue and Uncertain Horizons

After repeated rounds of violence, many people living in the region and watching from afar experience a kind of escalation fatigue, a sense that each new crisis is both shocking and depressingly familiar. Yet the recent period stands out because of its scale, regional linkages, and impact on international politics and law.

From an analytical perspective, these escalations highlight several key trends. Armed non state actors have gained influence and can dramatically change the strategic picture in a single day. The humanitarian costs of modern warfare in densely populated areas are extremely high, and existing mechanisms to protect civilians often struggle to function. International norms and institutions are tested when powerful states disagree on basic interpretations of self defense and proportionality. Public opinion and social media can intensify pressure but do not automatically produce coherent policy solutions.

The future course of the conflict remains open. Ceasefires, prisoner exchanges, or reconstruction plans may emerge, but each step is shaped by the memory and political consequences of recent escalations. Understanding these developments is essential for making sense of the options and constraints discussed in chapters on possible futures and on how to think critically about the conflict.